US added 339,000 jobs in May, higher than expected
Newsflash: the US economy added 339,000 jobs last month, a stronger increase than expected, despite the impact of higher interest rates.
Economists had expected around 190,000 new jobs, but instead hiring has accelerated – in a potential boost to president Joe Biden, but a new headache for US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell as he tries to cool inflation.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
March’s Non-Farm Payroll has been revised higher too, by 52,000, from +165,000 to +217,000. April’s data has been revised up by 41,000, from +253,000 to +294,000.
However, the US unemployment rate has risen by 0.3% to 3.7%. The number of unemployed people rose by 440,000 to 6.1 million – with more people out of work and looking for a job.
US job report not as strong as the #NFP suggests. Huge divergence in the household survey (used to calculate the unemployment rate, which jumped 0.3% to 3.7% with no change in unemployment rate) vs. the NFP change, which blew away estimates at +339k and net revision of prior two…
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) June 2, 2023
Key events
May brought the largest increase in US jobs since January, points out Josie Anderson, managing economist at Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Anderson explains:
“The number of US non-farm payrolls increased by 339,000 in May, roughly in line with the average job additions recorded in the 12-month period to April 2023, of 341,000. It is the first time since January that the increase in payrolls has stood above 300,000, bucking the broadly downwards trend in additions.
After last week’s acceleration in PCE inflation, today’s data on net payroll additions add to the likelihood of another Fed rate rise later this month.”
Wall Street rallies after jobs report
Shares are rallying in New York in early trading.
The Dow Jones industrial average, of 30 large US companies, has jumped by 351 points or 1.1% at 33,413.
The broader S&P 500 is also 1% higher, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite has jumped by 1.1% to its highest level since April 2022.
NASDAQ HITS HIGHEST INTRADAY LEVEL IN OVER 13 MONTHS, LAST UP 1.1%
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 2, 2023
Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis at Monex Europe, says:
A monstrous 339k jobs were added in May, up from an upwardly revised 294k in April. This net employment increase is the largest since January’s whopping 472k figure, which sparked markets to price in a higher terminal rate for the Fed – a contributing to the start of the regional banking crisis just a month later.
Although, despite the recent uptick in the pace of employment, it is worth noting May’s gains are in line with the series +341k twelve-month average. While the net employment figure suggests that labour demand is yet to come off the boil, the rest of May’s jobs report was on the soft side, leaving the market-implied odds of a rate hike from the Fed in June relatively low.
Bad news for US borrowers: Another interest rate hike is in the bag, after today’s jobs report.
That’s the verdict of Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, who also argues tha hopes of rate cuts this year are misplaced.
Shah says:
May’s blow out jobs report, combined with an upward revision to April, means that the Fed’s job is not yet done. The key question now is: can they wait until July or does this monster payrolls number trigger another burst of urgency in the FOMC? Perhaps the report details, with the unemployment rate rising and average hourly earnings growth slowing, tilts the decision to July.
But overall, this is not a labour market that is slowing – and if it’s not slowing, then inflation isn’t coming down to 2%.
In the past month, incoming economic data has emphasised the continued stickiness of inflation and resilience of the labour market. Markets have repriced their rate outlook significantly but are still over-optimistic about the prospects of rate cuts this year. With May payrolls almost double the average monthly gain in the 10 years pre-pandemic, what reason would the Fed have to cut rates?”
If the Fed doesn’t hike in June, it isn’t “data dependent.” The data is screaming hike. JOLTS, construction spending, NFP.
— John Carney (@carney) June 2, 2023
Today’s US jobs report could spur some Federal Reserve policymakers to push for another increase in interest rates this month.
So says Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, who explains:
“Expectations of a rate rise have been flip-flopping this month, and the employment data has now shown a surprisingly large increase in payrolls.
This may well flip markets back to pencilling in a hike.
The Fed has said it is data dependent and what it reads into this is therefore crucial. This will undoubtedly give plenty of support to the more hawkish members of the Fed.”
US labor market ‘is still very tight’
Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, says:
“Investors will interpret today’s strong jobs report as a sign that the US labour market is still very tight. The figures underscore the success of the US economy in getting workers back into the workforce.
Amid myriad concerns for investors this year, the labour market remains in focus given its strength as it continues to outpace economists’ estimates
Some snap reaction to the US jobs report:
Yep, as we expected, smashed it, prolonging the #nfp beat streak
*US MAY PAYROLLS INCREASE 339,000; EST. 195,000
*US MAY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 3.7% VS 3.4%
*US MAY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US MAY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 4.3% Y/Y; EST. +4.4%— Richfox Capital (@RichfoxCapital) June 2, 2023
Not sure NFP does much, if anything, to alter people’s priors…hawks can point to the blowout headline & chunky 2mth net revision…doves to the rise in unemployment & cooling earnings growth…maybe marginally more hawkish implications than exp, but not a game-changer imo
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) June 2, 2023
US short-term government debt has weakened, following the stronger-than-expected jobs growth last month.
This has driven up the yield, or interest rate, on two-year Treasury bills:
🇺🇸2-year US Treasuries spike 10bps on the NFP
Job market is still hot🔥
The front part of the yield curve will remain under pressure in the next few weeks as the US Treasury must issue large volumes of T-Bills. It might provide a nice entry point.@SaxoStrats @SaxoUK pic.twitter.com/WHd0rYzRoP
— Althea Spinozzi (@Altheaspinozzi) June 2, 2023
Wage growth slows to 4.3%
Although US job creation accelerated last month, wage growth cooled in May.
Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.3%, today’s non-farm payroll shows. That’s down from 4.4% in the year to April.
It’s also below the US CPI inflation rate, which rose by 4.9% in the year to April.
In May along, average hourly earnings rose by 11 cents, or 0.3%, to $33.44.
Wowza. NFP +339k is almost double expectations, along with +93k in revisions to March and April. But unemployment rate jumps 0.3%, LFPR down a tick. Hourly earnings +.3% in May, 4.3% last 12 mos. #JobsSaturday on #kbrs tomorrow 9-11am @TheBiz1440
— King Banaian (@banaianshow) June 2, 2023
US added 339,000 jobs in May, higher than expected
Newsflash: the US economy added 339,000 jobs last month, a stronger increase than expected, despite the impact of higher interest rates.
Economists had expected around 190,000 new jobs, but instead hiring has accelerated – in a potential boost to president Joe Biden, but a new headache for US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell as he tries to cool inflation.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
March’s Non-Farm Payroll has been revised higher too, by 52,000, from +165,000 to +217,000. April’s data has been revised up by 41,000, from +253,000 to +294,000.
However, the US unemployment rate has risen by 0.3% to 3.7%. The number of unemployed people rose by 440,000 to 6.1 million – with more people out of work and looking for a job.
US job report not as strong as the #NFP suggests. Huge divergence in the household survey (used to calculate the unemployment rate, which jumped 0.3% to 3.7% with no change in unemployment rate) vs. the NFP change, which blew away estimates at +339k and net revision of prior two…
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) June 2, 2023
Global stock markets are rallying today, as are commodity prices, as investors express relief that the US debt ceiling crisis has been resolved.
Optimism that the US Federal Reserve could leave interest rates on hold next month are also supporting asset prices.
In London, the FTSE 100 share index has jumped by 0.9% or 68 points to 7558, the highest since Tuesday, lead by mining stocks.
Earlier today, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei index closed at a three-decade high, after U.S. lawmakers voted to raise the debt limit.
There are also likely to be painful job cuts at Swiss bank Credit Suisse, following its takeover by UBS.
UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti told a financial conference in Bern today:
“We won’t be able to create, short term, job opportunities for everybody. Synergies is part of the story.
“We need to take a serious look at the cost base of the standalone and combined organisations and create a sustainable outcome.
It will be painful.”
Full story: Fiat seeks incentives from UK for motorists to buy electric vehicles
Fiat has called on the government to boost incentives for British motorists to buy electric vehicles, after warning that growth in UK sales of the vehicles has tailed off after a key subsidy was scrapped last year.
Writing in an open letter to the government, the car manufacturer said other countries around the world were providing more support for the transition to electric vehicles and argued more action was required in Britain.
It comes a year after ministers scrapped the last remaining subsidies for electric cars, saying it would free up funds to expand the charging network and support other battery-powered vehicles.
However, car manufacturers warned this week of a gulf between the number of electric vehicles on the road and public charging points, with the shortfall more than doubling in some parts of the country in the past year….
More here:
Mike Ashley’s Frasers to lay off up to 200 workers – Reuters
Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group is set to lay off up to 200 employees, as the British retailer looks to streamline its business after making a string of acquisitions in recent years, Reuters reports.
A spokesperson for the company, which was previously called Sports Direct, said in an e-mail.
“We are reviewing our team structures to identify efficiencies and streamline processes, and we have entered a consultation period with colleagues affected by these changes,”
The job cuts were first reported by the Sun last week.
Ashley – who once owned the Newcastle United football club – no longer heads Frasers but holds a roughly 70% stake in the company, which owns brands including House of Fraser, Flannels, USC and Jack Wills.
Earlier this week Frasers narrowly avoided falling out of the blue-chip FTSE 100 index in the latest reshuffle.
The Department for Transport have responded to Fiat’s call for more support to incentivise drivers to buy electric cars.
A DfT spokesperson said:
“We’ve invested more than £2bn into accelerating the transition to electric vehicles, and grants have been in place for over a decade to support the transition to zero emission vehicles – supporting more than 340,000 so far.
“To ensure value for the taxpayer, our support is now targeted where it will make most impact, including grants for vans and taxis, and support for the roll-out of rapid chargers.”